At best, “Thor” will end #4 for the season, with a respectable but not-sensational $340 million domestic, and a little more international. That’s down from “Doctor Strange in the Multi-verse of Madness” (Disney) at $411 million domestic, $543 million foreign (#2 summer domestic gross with “Minions” taking third). Shoring up July was “Top Gun: Maverick” adding $112 million to the $541 million it already amassed. The month also showed some strength for original films with Jordan Poole’s “Nope” (Universal) and “Where the Crawdads Sing” (Sony) joining “Elvis” as lesser-grossing but likely profitable non-franchise entries.
The total gross for 2022 through July reached 69 percent compared to the first seven months of 2019 — again, its highest relative showing to date. Of note: These are revenue comparisons, not attendance. Distributor sources say that the average ticket price has increased around 20 percent in three years. The month’s results are worth celebrating, but they also reinforce the impending disappointment of August. It’s not often a strong month — almost always down from July, by about a third. On those terms the August projection would be $750 million, but the total is more likely to be closer to $550 million. Anything more than that will come from a combination of three factors.
“Bullet Train” (Sony), opening this week, has the only shot at $100 million for the month — its $4.6 million Thursday gross is a sign that it could break out and lift August
Ed Araquel/Universal Pictures
The optics of a weak August aren’t good, but anything above $500 million should be viewed as good news. That’s enough to represent a building audience interest, even if studios aren’t releasing the kinds of films that normally bolster this month. Last year August had “Free Guy,” 2019 was “Hobbs and Shaw,” 2018 was “The Meg,” and “Crazy Rich Asians” — all grossed $100 million or more during the month. Theatergoing is still far from normal levels, even in a stellar month, but it’s additionally burdened by the combined impact of reduced release schedules. Some of this stems from Covid-era production issues; there’s also a downward shift in the volume of theatrical releases, and it remains to be seen if that’s a blip or a trend. The hope for the industry: The benefits of this summer will pay off later. Sign Up: Stay on top of the latest breaking film and TV news! Sign up for our Email Newsletters here.
